A Narrowing Way

Trump's path to the White House is getting lost in the weeds.

Trump cannot win in November without the independent and unaffiliated voters. Haley can't win without Trump's wackos.

Biden's campaign has no such material breach between such large groups of voters, and the bleeding of support that's being reported is being addressed, as the majority of his interaction with Israel has been in the pursuit of detente, not the genocidal aspirations of Netanyahu.

It's largely for this reason that I think Trump's path to victory is probably too narrow to be realistic, even now. And it's getting narrower over time. The greatest strength Trump's campaign has, ironically, is that most people don't really grasp yet that he'll be the GOP nominee. Haley obviously is not going to win the nomination, but let's say that for the sake of argument, she does.

It's not like Trump will quietly concede and go retire to peacefully defend himself in 37 courtrooms. He will take his wackos and start his own party-- or just threaten to do so --and the RNC will accede to his will. This will keep the wackos in the GOP column, but it will alienate even more nose-holding conservatives. The result of this is something that has been the case ever since Trump's post-coup comeback: Trump owns the Primaries, but can't win a general.

And you notice I haven't said anything at all about the more than half of Republicans who adamantly oppose a national abortion ban? Or how the number of Americans who consider climate change a "major concern" is up to 74% from 50% in 2020? Or how the Affordable Care Act enjoys 62% approval and Trump plans to gut it? Or literally anything about Project 2025?

And this consideration is all agnostic of Trump's criminality and almost certain impending convictions.