A New Third Rail for the GOP

Disunity in the Party reminds us that not all is moving in a Trumpward direction-- even inside the Republican Party.

The House is back in session today-- the first of twelve whole days they’ve scheduled themselves to work, this month. On paper, they have a busy docket. They’ve kicked the can down the road to the end of this month, to pass a budget, or more likely a continuing resolution, to keep the government open and avert a shutdown. That said, the issue the Democrats refused to budge on in September-- federal subsidies for the Affordable Care Act --has been forced to a floor vote in advance of the shutdown deadline at the end of January, in the form of another discharge petition. If you missed the mechanics of the last major exposure the House gave us to the discharge petition process, I’ll summarize.

Speaker Johnson decides which bills receive a floor vote. As a remorseless partisan hack, he only allows bills that the White House is likely to approve to come to a vote. Democratic priorities, like preventing massive, crippling expenses falling on their constituents like a ton of bricks, get short shrift on the Speaker’s schedule. To address intractable leadership like Johnson’s, members have a tool called a discharge petition, wherein if a majority of the House signs on, a vote can be forced, over the Speaker’s objection, on a specific bill.

That said, the House is very narrowly controlled by the Republican Party. With this week’s departure of Marjorie Taylor Greene, along with this morning’s tragic death of California Republican Doug LaMalfa, the Republicans hold 218 seats to the Democrats’ 213. That means that the majority is only 216 votes, giving the GOP only two votes of wiggle room for any given vote. Even so, a discharge petition still requires a majority of the full 435-member House to sign it(218), to pass. A discharge petition to fund and extend the aforementioned ACA subsidies for 3 years was passed just before the Christmas break, and the vote is prominent and highly newsworthy, even with the stories of Trump’s failing health, Trump’s extralegal adventures in Venezuela, and Trump’s colossal cover-up of the Epstein Files looming large.

The reason this bill to extend the subsidies is important is not just because it will provide relief to Americans-- which is of course extremely important, and the reason for the petition in the first place --but also because it throws a lifeline to the GOP, in advance of primary season. The Fall Shutdown was soundly blamed by the American people(particularly independents) on the Republican Party, because of their intransigence on ACA subsidies, without which non-wealthy Americans will see insurmountable cost increases for their health insurance. Shutting the government down all over again, with the GOP’s standing even poorer now than it was in the Fall, could prove disastrous for the Party, going into the Midterm Primaries.

This is why I think the vote on the ACA subsidy extension is so important. It moves the issue out of the budget fight, and dramatically increases the likelihood of a clean CR. This is also why I think it will likely pass along similar lines and margins as the Epstein Files Disclosure Act. I think most, if not all members(and senators) will vote in favor, not wishing to be a major target in the Primaries. Because also, if any Republican members of Congress vote against the extension, then healthcare will become the biggest issue in the Republican Primary campaign, a stage on which the issue of healthcare has never earned a high spot, and for which Republicans are best known for simply opposing it.

If the government shuts down because of a disagreement on ACA subsidies, the Republicans will not only own the shutdown, but they’ll have to answer for it to Republican primary voters. I can’t tell the future, but I can see around some corners, and I see this as a potentially devastating issue for the already flailing Republican Party. That’s why I think the subsidies will pass quickly and without argument. It’s a spotlight and a battle they do not need.