The Buck and Boebert Balderdash
Ken Buck has created a scenario that may destroy Lauren Boebert, but Jared Polis needs to make it happen.
Colorado Republican Ken Buck(CO04) announced some time ago that he would not seek re-election to his seat in Congress. Lauren Boebert(CO03) fresh off dodging a bullet in 2022 that is not likely to miss in 2024, announced in December that that she would run instead for Buck’s seat, for a district which favors Republicans by double-digits.
Today, Buck announced that he would leave the House on March 22nd, introducing complexity to an already difficult race for Boebert. Let’s explore that complexity a bit.
Governor Jared Polis is a rising star in the Democratic Party, having represented Joe Neguse’s CO02 before his successful gubernatorial run in 2018 and easy re-election in 2022. The choice and logistical details fall to him, as to when the special election to fill Buck’s seat will take place. There are two major possibilities, both with deeply impactful consequences.
Colorado’s primary election is on June 25th. Lauren Boebert cannot run in the special election unless she resigns the seat she currently holds until January 3, 2025.
Before the Primary
If the special election is held before the primary election, then Congresswoman Boebert can either resign and run, giving herself a much-needed leg-up in the Primary, or just accept that she will face an incumbent in the Primary, which I think will be very difficult for her. She could resign and try to become the incumbent for CO04, but that’s anything but guaranteed. If she loses the special election, she would go into the Primary even weaker, and she’d be out of office. Also, that would create another vacancy for the Governor to address.
After the Primary
Colorado law states that the Governor cannot schedule a special election within 90 days of a general election— that is to say, the special election cannot be held after August 7th, 2024, and would probably be held, at the latest, on Tuesday, August 6th. That leave six potential Tuesdays, if it’s held on a Tuesday. The news media seem to be convinced that Gov Polis will stall the special election as long as he can, in an effort to exacerbate the narrow margin by which the Republican Party holds its majority in the House of Representatives. With two more budget showdowns before the General Election to showcase the legislative ineptitude of Speaker Johnson(LA04) and his extremist caucus of made-for-TV buffoons, this would probably be politically advantageous in the big picture.
For Lauren Boebert, it would create an all-or-nothing scenario. If she wins the Primary, she needn’t care how the special election turns out, because with the GOP nomination, she would likely cruise to a General election victory, and be sworn in on January 3rd for CO04. However, if she doesn’t win the primary, her 2024 hopes are completely destroyed. Keep in mind though that this scenario was exactly the same before Buck announced his early departure from the House.
Polis has an historic opportunity to take impactful steps to rid Congress of the Boebert menace by holding the special election before the Primary, or he can delay the special election as long as he can, to put a spotlight on the hapless bungling of the House GOP.
My money is on the GOP humiliating themselves just fine, without help from Jared Polis.
UPDATE(3/13/2024)
Governor Polis wasted no time. He has set the date for the special election to be the same as the Colorado Primary, June 25th. This means that voters will be forced to pick someone who is not Lauren Boebert to finish out the term, and then turn around and vote for her for the Primary, if she really does have a chance. It seems strange to me that she would get a winning number of votes when people can just vote for the same person twice. Time will tell though.