The Inevitability of a Democratic House

An inch-deep look at some of the people who give me enormous hope for the future of the US.

The Democratic Party is going to take back the House of Representatives this year. This might seem like a crazy thing to say, but I assure you it is not. There are just too many vulnerable Republican seats, and very few vulnerable Democratic seats. On the Democratic side, GA07, held by Lucy McBath will flip to red, but that's because it's essentially switched places with GA06, held by Rich McCormick, which will flip to blue. Otherwise, the only Democratic seats I can see definitely flipping to red are three seats in North Carolina(06, 13, and 14) which were redrawn between 2022 and now by the state's legislature and Supreme Court, to give the GOP three free seats.

Republican Mayra Flores is the only Republican challenger who's out-raised her Democratic incumbent opponent Vicente Gonzalez in TX34, and considering she was that district's representative from June 2022 when she won it in a special election after the resignation of its previous occupant, she may have a good chance to retake the seat.

The three seats in North Carolina, plus the potential of Mayra Flores retaking her old seat, give the Republicans the potential to expand their majority in the House to 225 seats.

But let's talk about some Republican-held tight seats. Nick LaLota, Anthony D'Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams are all going to have a very difficult time holding their seats in New York. I will be very surprised if Mike Garcia, David Valadao, John Duarte, and Ken Calvert can keep a grip on their seats in California. Redrawn districts in Alabama and Louisiana will force Republicans to give up two seats. Don Bacon in Nebraska, Marianette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa, Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon, David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, and Tom Kean in New Jersey are just 18 seats I fully expect to flip, which is ten more than they need to retake the chamber, and that's only the beginning. There are several more. Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, and Wisconsin all show very promising races that I think will result in flips to blue.

But now we get to the seats I want to talk about most, and what I think will be examples of incorrectly predicted races by the analysis thinktanks. It is my belief that donations by individuals, a metric I have never seen anyone report on except in passing, provide a unique insight into any given race. It's my belief that for Congressional campaigns, individual donations indicate individual enthusiasm. In-state donations indicate successful ground operations, and the ability to reinvest that success into expanded door-knocking, phone-banking, and retail politics.

Rebecca Cooke is running to unseat Derrick Van Orden, who famously yelled obscenities at young Congressional pages, for Wisconsin's third district. Wisconsin's Democratic party is unequivocally the best-run state party in the country, mostly because of the exemplary leadership of Ben Wikler. Wisconsin will turn a lot of heads this year.

Whitney Fox is running against freshman Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna for Florida's 13th district. Luna is a MAGA celebrity who made many promises to the people of her district(Pinellas County, which includes Clearwater and most of St. Petersburg) and has delivered on exactly zero of them. Florida has an abortion question, as well as a recreational cannabis question, which I think will lower the bar for lots of Democratic challengers, including Senate hopeful Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Also, thanks to the efforts of organizations like Run For Something, headed by the amazing Amanda Litman, there is not a single Republican incumbent in Florida who does not have a Democratic challenger in 2024. This means that ground operations in Florida are bluer than they've ever been.

Former Nashville mayor Megan Barry is running against Mark Green for Tennessee's 7th district. The GOP is complacent about Tennessee, which has many cities and suburbs, and in which Democratic Senate hopeful Gloria Johnson is challenging incumbent Marsha Blackburn, and will, I predict, make an impressive account of herself. Megan Barry has an excellent ground game, and will likely turn a longtime red district blue.

Former Army Captain Ashley Ehasz has out-raised incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick in in-state individual donations for her run for Pennsylvania's first district, in the Philadelphia area. She has an excellent ground game, and is running on the issue that Republicans have no good answer for, and frankly wish would just go away: abortion rights and bodily autonomy, among other issues.

Callie Barr, like others I'm listing, has out-raised her deep-red aging opponent Jack Bergman in in-state individual donations, and is running a highly successful bipartisan ground campaign in northern Michigan's first district. She's campaigning on the lack of progress of the Republican-controlled House, attracting both Democrats and Republicans to her banner.

Jen Schultz has largely kept pace with her MAGA opponent Pete Stauber in Minnesota's eighth district, one of the reddest in the Midwest. This has translated to (see a theme yet?) an excellent ground game, focusing on fixing America's healthcare system.

I mention these races because 1) I think they have every chance in the world of flipping, 2) to illustrate that a ground game and local donations make all the difference in the world, even in races characterized as "Solid R," because an effective ground game and the judicious use of retail politics, and 3) to put a bookmark in these races, to see what effect, if any, individual donations from the people actually casting the ballots have on the outcome.

There are other districts(NC11, NY02, PA16, TX24, among others) but I do have to get some work done.